Commit graph

5 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
1ec10bec1f
Split ERA5 backfill into submit/poll workers with persistent CDS state
The single Era5MonthBatchWorker pinned an Oban slot for the full 30-45
min a CDS month-tile takes to assemble, and lost the work entirely on a
rolling deploy because the in-flight Task died with the pod. This splits
the flow into two tiny workers and persists the CDS job IDs so deploys
survive.

New pipeline:

1. Era5SubmitWorker (:era5_submit queue) — POSTs both CDS requests in
   parallel, writes an `era5_cds_jobs` row with the returned job IDs,
   and enqueues an Era5PollWorker scheduled +5 min. ~1s of real work.
   Short-circuits when the month-tile is already cached or when a row
   already exists (in-flight from a previous attempt).

2. Era5PollWorker (:era5_poll queue) — reads the row, calls
   Era5Client.check_status/1 for both CDS job IDs, and:
     - returns {:snooze, 300} if either job is still running (Oban
       re-schedules without counting an attempt and releases the slot
       immediately — a pod can keep dozens of tile-months in flight
       without pinning workers)
     - streams both GRIB files to disk via Req into: File.stream!,
       decodes via Wgrib2.extract_grid_messages_from_file, bulk-inserts
       via Era5BatchClient.decode_and_insert/6, deletes the row, and
       DELETEs both completed jobs from CDS to free server-side quota
     - if either leg CDS-reports failed, deletes the row + both CDS
       jobs and returns {:error, reason}

Era5Client gains four testable building blocks:
  submit_job/2               (bare POST → {:ok, job_id})
  check_status/1             (GET → :running | {:done, src} | {:failed, reason})
  download_source_to_file/3  (streams {:url, href} or writes {:body, bin})
  delete_job/1               (DELETE /jobs/:id, treats 200/202/204/404 as :ok)

All Req calls now route through `era5_req_options` so tests can stub
CDS responses via Req.Test.stub(Era5Client, fn).

Era5MonthBatchWorker is retained as a thin forwarder to Era5SubmitWorker
so any jobs already in the :era5_batch queue on prod pods drain cleanly
on the next rolling deploy. Safe to delete in a follow-up.

Adds era5_cds_jobs table with a unique index on
(year, month, tile_lat, tile_lon) so duplicate submits collapse.

New queue config in runtime.exs:
  era5_submit: local_limit 4, rate_limit 30/hour (burst protection)
  era5_poll:   local_limit 20 (polls are cheap GETs)
  era5_batch:  kept at 1 for legacy job drain, delete next cycle
2026-04-13 16:26:26 -05:00
cfe864eb14
Bump era5_batch parallelism to 12 concurrent (CDS-Beta ceiling)
Raise local_limit 2→4 (12 concurrent cluster-wide) and rate_limit 10→30
per hour. Each job makes 2 serial CDS requests, so active workers map 1:1
to CDS slots; 12 sits safely under CDS-Beta's ~16 per-user ceiling while
the rate gate stays above steady-state so it stops being the bottleneck.
2026-04-13 15:48:24 -05:00
fc3eb58910
Refresh propagation algo against expanded prod corpus (2026-04-13)
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:

* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
  score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
  removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
  with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
  avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
  those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
  ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
  max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
  the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
  "ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
  time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
  .envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
  the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
  contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
  tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
  include the new bands.

Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
2026-04-13 10:59:01 -05:00
485676887a Move Era5MonthBatchWorker to its own queue
The slow CDS submit/poll/download cycle of the month-batch worker was
sharing the era5 queue with the cheap Era5FetchWorker router, and its
2 concurrent slots were permanently pinned by long-running batch jobs
while hundreds of router jobs starved. Give the batch worker its own
era5_batch queue (also 2 concurrent per pod) so the router has
dedicated capacity.
2026-04-09 14:12:31 -05:00
8637253fda Batch ERA5 fetches by month and 2° tile
Per-point ERA5 fetches were tragically slow because every point-hour
triggered its own asynchronous CDS job (submit → poll → assemble →
download). For backfill this meant thousands of independent jobs
queued against Copernicus. The new path groups requests by calendar
month and a 2° × 2° lat/lon tile so one CDS cycle populates ~60k
profiles at once, and Oban uniqueness on (year, month, tile_lat,
tile_lon) collapses every duplicate enqueue.

- Era5BatchClient builds the monthly CDS requests, extracts every
  (lat, lon, hour) from the GRIB2 blob with wgrib2, derives
  refractivity params, and bulk-inserts in 2k-row chunks with
  on_conflict: :nothing. fetch_month_into_db/1 short-circuits when
  the month-tile already has any cached profile.
- Era5MonthBatchWorker runs the batch on the :era5 queue with a
  generous backoff (10m → 1d) and the uniqueness key above.
- Era5FetchWorker is now a thin router: cache hit → :ok, cache miss
  → enqueue the month-batch for the point's tile-month and return.
  No more per-point CDS calls.
- Wgrib2 grows extract_grid_messages/3 which preserves per-message
  datetimes by parsing `d=YYYYMMDDHH[MMSS]` from the inventory, so a
  single GRIB2 file carrying a whole month decodes correctly.
- The era5_backfill mix task enqueues month-tile batches directly.
2026-04-09 13:01:49 -05:00