New LiveView at /weather-ca duplicates the /weather UI but defaults the
viewport to central Canada (55N, -100W, z=4) and renders the map div
with data-source="hrdps". The JS hook reads that attribute and appends
&source=hrdps to every cell fetch; the WeatherTileController routes
those reads through Weather.weather_grid_hrdps_at/2, which only reads
the <vt>.hrdps scalar dir and skips HRRR merging entirely. Timeline is
sourced from ScalarFile.list_valid_times_hrdps/0 so HRDPS-only hours
show up even when no HRRR file exists for the same valid_time.
Also drops "— Unified" from the algo.md H1.
Both retired in light of the 2026-04-25 revision report
(`docs/algo-reports/2026-04-25-algo-revisions.md`):
* HPBL boundary-layer multiplier in `Scorer.score_refractivity/{3,4,5}`
is gone. On the n=47,418 10 GHz HRRR-matched corpus rho_hpbl is
+0.004; binned distance is flat to within ±5 % across 200–2,000 m.
The previously reported 2.3× ratio between shallow and deep HPBL
bins was a small-corpus artefact that disappeared once the matched
corpus passed ~5,000 contacts.
* Native-profile 1.15× duct boost is gone. At 10 GHz on n=52,341
matched contacts, cells where `best_duct_band_ghz` ≥ band ran
*shorter* than no-duct cells (198 km vs 211 km, n=173 vs 44,658).
The Bulk Richardson gate that existed only to suppress that boost
in turbulent conditions is also retired; arity preserved on every
`score_refractivity` overload so callers compile unchanged.
Same retirements applied in the Rust port (`rust/prop_grid_rs/src/scorer.rs`)
to keep the Elixir/Rust parity tests green.
algo.md updated end-to-end:
* Finding 4 (HPBL) rewritten to "no usable signal" with the
n=47,418 bin table.
* Finding 5 (gradient) tightened: load-bearing only at 24 GHz,
set band-specific gradient weight to 0 outside [10, 47] GHz on
the next derive_band_weights run.
* Finding 8 (time-of-day) augmented with the robust hour-bucketed
amplitude index (40 / 82 / 101 % at 10 / 24 / 47 GHz) and a
selection-bias caveat for VHF/UHF (where 129–148 % amplitude
reflects evening contest scheduling, not propagation).
* Finding 9 (sounding) refreshed against the n=27,058 corpus.
* Part 2c "Native-profile duct boost" rewritten as
"retired 2026-04-25" with the falsifying join.
* Part 2c "Commercial-link inverse sensor" promoted from deferred
with the 22-day, 38k-sample SNMP corpus, the +0.61 / −0.61 PWAT
and pressure correlations against the 37-hour HRRR overlap, and
the 04–05 / 10–12 local two-peak morning fade window.
* Part 2b "Pressure" annotated with the U-shape at 10 GHz and the
next-iteration target.
* Part 2d "What stayed, what left" + "Open items" updated to
reflect the four code/doc moves.
119 Elixir scorer tests green, 134 Rust scorer tests green, 2,888
total Elixir tests + 221 properties green via `mix precommit`.
Three small corrections now that the Richardson gate is actually
wired into Scorer.score_refractivity/5:
- Fix arity reference /4 → /5 in Part 2c.
- Reconcile the backtest section's "bulk_richardson is dead" finding
with the new gate wiring — they're compatible claims. Richardson
is dead as a standalone ML discriminator (stable and unstable
inversions both produce ducts), but useful as a gate on the
native-duct boost (a duct with high Ri is likely to mix out
before the signal gets through).
- Note that nil Richardson is treated as "no info" so older native
profiles without the column still receive the unconditional boost.
algo.md rewrite:
- Strip retrospective language (was/previously/↑ from/Reverted/prior)
so the doc describes the current algorithm instead of its history.
Parts 2b/2c/2d lose their dated headings.
- Replace ERA5 references with NARR — ERA5 was never populated in
prod; NARR is the real historical-backfill path (1979–2014 via
NCEP / NCEI).
- Fold the sounding ducting-probability table, HPBL binned distance,
and per-band signal summary into the current-state discussion
instead of "changes since last refresh" tables.
- Note the bulk_richardson gating on the native-duct boost (code
follow-up in a separate commit).
Algo page UI: widen .markdown-content from 64rem → 88rem so the
per-band weight + correlation matrices stop overflowing on typical
screens. Wide tables inside markdown content now get their own
horizontal scroll (display: block + overflow-x: auto) rather than
forcing the whole container to scroll.
Ran recalibrate_algo.py against the full local prop_dev (81,994 contacts,
18.6M HRRR rows) and derived per-band composite weights for the nine
bands with >=200 matched contacts. Moisture (dewpoint/PWAT/surface N)
is consistently beneficial through 5.76 GHz, reverses at 24 GHz; rain
scales sqrt(rain_k) not linearly so 24 GHz gets 0.215 rain weight
instead of the linear-ratio 0.95. 10 GHz stays as the reference band
(defaults); 47+ GHz inherits defaults (n<200).
- BandConfig.weights/1 returns per-band override or default fallback
- @band_configs carries :weights on 222/432/902/1296/2304/3400/5760/24G
- Recalibrator.compute_factors/3 + fit(band_mhz:) band-aware fitting
- Scorer + ContactLive.Show pass band_config to weights/1
- algo.md Part 2d documents the 2026-04-18 analysis + derivation rule
- scripts/derive_band_weights.py turns correlations into weight maps
- report preserved at docs/algo-reports/2026-04-18-recalibration.md
With the native hybrid-sigma profile now storing levels all the way up
to ~19 km, the scorer can finally see the mid-to-upper troposphere.
The five factors that would plausibly add signal — 500 mb dewpoint
depression, 300 mb wind speed, 850→500 mb dθ/dz, tropopause height,
and 500 mb height anomaly — get rationale, derivation notes, and
placeholder weights. Actual weights have to wait for the native
backfill to catch up enough QSO hours for a representative training
sample, at which point the existing gradient-descent recalibration
pass refits the full factor set.
Three signal sources we already collect but weren't using:
* NEXRAD composite reflectivity → rain rate via Marshall-Palmer, taken
as max of HRRR-derived and NEXRAD-derived rate so fast convective
cells between HRRR hourly analyses can still trigger the rain penalty.
Only active on f00 — forecast hours can't see future radar. New
Scorer.dbz_to_rain_rate_mmhr/1 with 5 dBZ noise floor and 150 mm/hr
hail-safe ceiling.
* hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz → Scorer.score_refractivity/4
applies a 1.15× boost when the cell's native-resolution duct supports
the target band's frequency. HRRR pressure-level gradients
systematically under-read thin trapping layers the native profile can
resolve. Sub-band ducts do NOT boost — they're evidence that the
gradient we have is all there is at the target frequency.
* Commercial LOS link rx_power fading → inverse tropo sensor.
Commercial.link_degradation_at/3 computes the average 7-day-baseline
vs current delta across enabled links within 75 km, ignoring links
where link_state != 1. Scorer.commercial_link_boost/2 adds +2 to +25
to the composite score for 3+ dB of fading. ~150 km radius around
DFW is the only zone this helps today, but it's the first *measured*
signal in the algorithm vs the model-derived proxies.
Also fix a latent test bug exposed by the earlier ERA5 poll-timeout
bump: era5_batch_client_test's "uncached path returns error" tests
hung for up to an hour when run with direnv's real CDS key. New
describe-level setup explicitly unsets the env var so the tests stay
hermetic.
1,359 tests, 0 failures.
Direct queries against prod (75M HRRR profiles, 16,864 soundings, 392k
surface obs, new hrrr_native_profiles table) drive these changes:
* Reinstate shallow-BL bonus as an HPBL multiplier on the refractivity
score (1.10× <200m → 0.78× ≥2000m). The Apr 11 "shallow BL bonus
removed" conclusion was an artifact of the prior matching strategy;
with the cleaner contact↔HRRR join (n=680) the binned data goes 230 km
avg at HPBL <200m vs 100 km at ≥2000m, monotonic across all bins.
* Add 6 missing bands (142, 145, 288, 322, 403, 411 GHz) so contacts in
those bands stop being silently dropped. Coefficients extrapolate
ITU-R P.676/P.838 trends from the existing 134/241 GHz entries.
* Bump ERA5 poll timeout 10 min → 1 hour and Era5MonthBatchWorker
max_attempts 3 → 5 so CDS slowness stops discarding tiles. Also dump
the full failure body when CDS omits the message field — the prior
"ERA5 job failed: nil" was masking real error reasons in oban_jobs.
* Add scripts/recalibrate_algo.py so this analysis can be re-run any
time new data lands without manual SQL. Reads PROP_PROD_DB_URL from
.envrc, drops a Markdown report into docs/algo-reports/.
* Append a dated Part 2c to algo.md documenting the corpus expansion,
the honest accounting of historical HRRR coverage (only ~1,020 of 58k
contacts are precision-matchable), and the empty era5/rtma/climatology
tables. Update the gaseous-absorption and rain-attenuation tables to
include the new bands.
Test suite: 1,335 tests, 0 failures.
- Replace stale April 2026 manual weights with recalibrated values
- Document native hybrid-sigma data in data flow section
- Note refractivity factor now uses native 10-50m resolution
- Add hourly grid integration section to Part 12
- Expose duct_info (count, freq, thickness) in scoring factors for UI
Backtest on 11,431 native profiles (2026-04-11):
- Drop duct_usable_10/24/47ghz (always 1.0, no discrimination)
- Drop bulk_richardson (near-identical QSO vs baseline means)
- Document all feature results with signal strength assessment
- theta_e_jump is strongest native discriminator (44% lift)
- best_duct_freq and duct_thickness show clear physical signal
Add sections for all three new data sources in Meteorological
Foundations: path-integrated scoring strategy, ERA5 reanalysis
for pre-2014 contacts, RTMA 15-minute surface analysis. Update
calibration dataset summary with ERA5/RAOB/RTMA coverage.
Solar time (longitude/15) replaces fixed CDT/CST offset for time-of-day
scoring. Correlation analysis shows dramatic improvement at higher
frequencies: 24 GHz rho jumps from 0.056 (UTC) to 0.188 (solar), and
75 GHz corrects from spurious -0.39 to physically correct +0.24.
Comprehensive description of atmospheric science behind the predictions
for meteorologist review: refractivity-propagation connection, four
ducting mechanisms, HRRR model usage, frequency-dependent effects,
diurnal/seasonal cycles, and known limitations.
Previous thresholds (-500 to -60) were calibrated for radiosonde data.
HRRR profiles have coarser vertical resolution, with gradients clustering
between -40 and -130 N/km (median -70). Nearly all grid points were
falling through to the default score of 42, wasting the refractivity
factor. New thresholds (-200 to -40) spread across HRRR percentiles.
- Replace piecewise knife-edge loss with P.526-16 Eq. 31 single formula
- Fix diffraction parameter ν to use standard formula instead of ad-hoc approximation
- Implement Deygout 3-edge method for multiple obstacle diffraction
- Add dynamic k-factor from HRRR refractivity gradient (falls back to 4/3)
- Terrain worker now looks up nearest HRRR profile for atmospheric correction
- Update algo.md with P.526-16 methods and k-factor table
- Fix pre-existing map_live_test antenna height default (33 ft, not 8)
- Expand ITU-R section with recommendation numbers, titles, and usage
- Document all 8 external data sources with API URLs, volumes, fields
- Add derived parameter documentation (sounding params, HRRR profiles)
- Document live scoring pipeline (grid resolution, update cadence, retention)
- Add contest bias and rain model caveats to known issues
- Document Finding 11: regional QSO performance by Maidenhead field
- Explain why regional weight adjustments are not justified
- Fix algo.md table formatting (blank lines before tables for Earmark)
- Change page title from Phoenix Framework to North Texas Microwave Society
Poll UBNT AirFiber radios (AF11X + AF60-LR) every 5 minutes via
net-snmp CLI, storing signal metrics in commercial_samples. Fetches
ASOS weather alongside each cycle for propagation correlation.
Includes 7 seeded link definitions, Oban cron worker, and net-snmp
in the Docker image.
