Add regional analysis to algo.md, update site title to NTMS

- Document Finding 11: regional QSO performance by Maidenhead field
- Explain why regional weight adjustments are not justified
- Fix algo.md table formatting (blank lines before tables for Earmark)
- Change page title from Phoenix Framework to North Texas Microwave Society
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Graham McIntire 2026-03-31 10:47:39 -05:00
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@ -275,6 +275,49 @@ Monthly ducting probability from 3,901 soundings:
The CW advantage (~7 dB bandwidth: 10*log10(2700/500)) translates to 24% longer average distances. Scoring tier range estimates should be qualified by mode. One confirmed 710 km rainscatter contact at 24 GHz (CW mode). The CW advantage (~7 dB bandwidth: 10*log10(2700/500)) translates to 24% longer average distances. Scoring tier range estimates should be qualified by mode. One confirmed 710 km rainscatter contact at 24 GHz (CW mode).
### Finding 11: Regional Performance Varies but Is Not Algorithm-Correctable
10 GHz QSO distances by Maidenhead field (N≥20):
| Field | Region | QSOs | Avg km | P90 km | Max km |
|-------|--------|------|--------|--------|--------|
| FM | Mid-Atlantic (DC/VA/MD) | 664 | 321 | 606 | 1041 |
| EL | Florida/Gulf Coast | 32 | 231 | 460 | 1609 |
| CM | N. California | 3,935 | 224 | 411 | 1460 |
| EN | Upper Midwest (WI/MN/IL) | 18,745 | 217 | 343 | 1223 |
| FN | Northeast (NY/NE) | 20,957 | 215 | 418 | 1212 |
| DM | SoCal/Southwest | 6,314 | 203 | 365 | 1448 |
| EM | South-Central (TX/OK) | 2,204 | 146 | 272 | 1609 |
| CN | Pacific Northwest | 119 | 84 | 192 | 468 |
At 24 GHz, the ranking shifts — dry regions outperform because absorption dominates:
| Field | Region | QSOs | Avg km | P90 km |
|-------|--------|------|--------|--------|
| DM | SoCal/Southwest | 279 | 157 | 227 |
| CM | N. California | 318 | 129 | 221 |
| EN | Upper Midwest | 1,135 | 98 | 178 |
| FN | Northeast | 1,644 | 90 | 144 |
| EM | South-Central | 251 | 43 | 83 |
Sounding data by region shows ducting frequency is broadly similar (52-62%), suggesting the atmosphere is not the primary driver of the 4x regional spread in QSO distances:
| Region | Stations | Soundings | Ducting % | Avg BL Depth |
|--------|----------|-----------|-----------|-------------|
| West Coast | 17 | 634 | 61.7% | 1043m |
| Southeast/Gulf | 29 | 1,357 | 55.6% | 741m |
| Central | 37 | 1,235 | 53.6% | 990m |
| Northeast/Mid-Atl | 16 | 930 | 52.3% | 558m |
**Why regional adjustments are NOT in the scoring model:**
1. **Station density and operator skill dominate.** The Mid-Atlantic's top ranking correlates with a dense cluster of experienced mountaintop operators, not unique atmospheric physics. Contest results reflect who showed up and where, not just propagation.
2. **Terrain is the confound.** PNW (CN) underperforms due to Cascades blocking paths, not worse atmosphere. Terrain profiles handle this separately.
3. **The weather inputs already capture the physics.** Coastal inversions (high humidity + refractivity), dry air (low absorption at 24G), and boundary layer depth are all in the scoring factors. If the Mid-Atlantic has better ducting conditions on a given day, it scores higher naturally.
4. **Overfitting risk.** The QSO dataset is 97% Aug-Sep contests. Regional weights calibrated to contest patterns would break for non-contest conditions (winter, spring, nighttime).
The correct approach is to let the physics-based factors (humidity, refractivity gradient, BL depth, time of day) produce regional variation organically rather than applying static multipliers.
--- ---
## Part 3: Band Configuration ## Part 3: Band Configuration

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