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+# Recalibration Analysis Report — 2026-05-04
+
+> Auto-generated by `scripts/recalibrate_algo.py`. This report is the
+> input for `algo.md` updates — diff against the prior dated section to
+> see what's actually moved.
+
+Connection: `postgres://prop:***@10.0.15.30:5432/prop`
+Statement timeout: 20min
+
+
+## Row counts and date ranges
+
+| tbl                  |            n | lo         | hi         |
+|:---------------------|-------------:|:-----------|:-----------|
+| contacts             |    82084.000 | 1991-05-04 | 2026-05-02 |
+| hrrr_native_profiles |    11472.000 | 2019-03-09 | 2025-09-21 |
+| hrrr_profiles        | 81302322.000 | 2016-09-17 | 2026-05-02 |
+| iemre_observations   |    28936.000 |            |            |
+| narr_profiles        |      395.000 | 1991-05-04 | 2014-09-19 |
+| nexrad_observations  |     7286.000 | 2019-08-17 | 2024-09-22 |
+| propagation_scores   |      nan     |            |            |
+| soundings            |    27745.000 | 1990-06-07 | 2026-05-04 |
+| surface_observations |   648809.000 | 1991-05-03 | 2026-05-04 |
+| terrain_profiles     |    82084.000 |            |            |
+
+
+## Data gaps and ingestion health
+
+Severity legend: **BROKEN** = table is empty and feeds an active scoring path; **WARN** = populated but coverage is low enough to skew per-band statistics; **OK** = within spec or informational. Each non-OK row carries a one-line remediation hint.
+
+| metric                 |   value | severity   | remediation                                                                                                                                                            |
+|:-----------------------|--------:|:-----------|:-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
+| narr_rows              |     395 | OK         |                                                                                                                                                                        |
+| narr_pre2014_rows      |     395 | OK         |                                                                                                                                                                        |
+| hrrr_climatology_rows  |       0 | BROKEN     | Should self-heal within 24h via the daily 02:30Z cron that runs AdminTaskWorker(task=climatology). If still 0 after a day, check Oban dashboard for failed admin jobs. |
+| hrrr_complete_contacts |   81278 | OK         |                                                                                                                                                                        |
+| hrrr_pending_contacts  |     806 | OK         |                                                                                                                                                                        |
+| pre2014_contacts       |     207 | OK         |                                                                                                                                                                        |
+
+
+HRRR enrichment completeness: **99.0%** (81,278 complete / 806 pending).
+
+
+### NARR coverage by year
+
+Year-bucketed counts. NARR is supposed to span 1979 → 2014-10 at 3-hourly cadence (~2,920 timestamps per year per grid cell). Years far below the others are partial backfills the worker hasn't finished.
+
+|     year |   profiles |
+|---------:|-----------:|
+| 1991.000 |     31.000 |
+| 1992.000 |      4.000 |
+| 1993.000 |     18.000 |
+| 1994.000 |     19.000 |
+| 1996.000 |      3.000 |
+| 1997.000 |      8.000 |
+| 1998.000 |      2.000 |
+| 1999.000 |     11.000 |
+| 2000.000 |     10.000 |
+| 2001.000 |     14.000 |
+| 2002.000 |     12.000 |
+| 2003.000 |     36.000 |
+| 2004.000 |     23.000 |
+| 2005.000 |     49.000 |
+| 2006.000 |     20.000 |
+| 2007.000 |     44.000 |
+| 2008.000 |     15.000 |
+| 2009.000 |     17.000 |
+| 2010.000 |     31.000 |
+| 2011.000 |      4.000 |
+| 2012.000 |     15.000 |
+| 2013.000 |      3.000 |
+| 2014.000 |      6.000 |
+
+
+### HRRR enrichment status by year
+
+Locate the pending backlog: a year with high `queued`/`failed`/`unset` counts is where HrrrFetchWorker needs to be rerun. Recent years dominating `queued` usually means the live Oban queue is stuck rather than a historical backfill gap.
+
+|     year |   complete |   queued |   failed |   unset |
+|---------:|-----------:|---------:|---------:|--------:|
+| 2014.000 |      0.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2015.000 |      0.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2016.000 |      2.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2017.000 |     26.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2018.000 |   2658.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2019.000 |  13036.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2020.000 |  10300.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2021.000 |  11266.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2022.000 |  14487.000 |    2.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2023.000 |  13461.000 |    5.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2024.000 |  13378.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2025.000 |   2640.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+| 2026.000 |     24.000 |    0.000 |    0.000 |   0.000 |
+
+
+## Contacts by band (≥50 MHz)
+
+|   band_mhz |   contacts |   avg_km |   max_km |
+|-----------:|-----------:|---------:|---------:|
+|        222 |       7595 |  229.000 | 2306.000 |
+|        432 |       9177 |  200.000 | 1752.000 |
+|        902 |       1794 |  171.000 |  915.000 |
+|       1296 |       2996 |  160.000 | 1752.000 |
+|       2304 |        749 |  153.000 |  655.000 |
+|       3400 |        351 |  151.000 |  643.000 |
+|       5760 |        336 |  126.000 |  505.000 |
+|      10000 |      54280 |  211.000 | 2393.000 |
+|      24000 |       3815 |   96.000 |  710.000 |
+|      47000 |        774 |   65.000 |  343.000 |
+|      75000 |        117 |   57.000 |  289.000 |
+|     122000 |         70 |   18.000 |  139.000 |
+|     134000 |          5 |   65.000 |  157.000 |
+|     142000 |          4 |   47.000 |   79.700 |
+|     145000 |          2 |   40.000 |   79.600 |
+|     241000 |         14 |   31.000 |  114.400 |
+|     288000 |          1 |    1.000 |    1.246 |
+|     322000 |          1 |    1.000 |    1.400 |
+|     403000 |          1 |    1.000 |    1.400 |
+|     411000 |          1 |    0.000 |    0.050 |
+
+
+## Monthly sounding ducting
+
+|   month |   soundings |   ducting_pct |   avg_min_grad |   avg_pwat |
+|--------:|------------:|--------------:|---------------:|-----------:|
+|       1 |         103 |        27.200 |       -179.200 |     10.400 |
+|       2 |         131 |        29.000 |       -163.100 |      7.900 |
+|       3 |          93 |        17.200 |       -157.200 |      8.900 |
+|       4 |         330 |        24.200 |       -155.500 |     11.300 |
+|       5 |         360 |        48.100 |       -269.200 |     23.900 |
+|       6 |         396 |        68.900 |       -352.900 |     31.600 |
+|       7 |         304 |        67.100 |       -292.500 |     29.600 |
+|       8 |        5045 |        55.200 |       -255.800 |     35.100 |
+|       9 |        2345 |        56.300 |       -280.000 |     27.300 |
+|      10 |         179 |        55.300 |       -304.800 |     18.300 |
+|      11 |         194 |        45.400 |       -237.300 |     11.600 |
+|      12 |         158 |        25.900 |       -182.400 |     10.800 |
+
+
+## HRRR native-profile duct distribution (best supportable band)
+
+| band_bin   |   profiles |   avg_inv_top_m |   avg_theta_e_jump |   avg_richardson |
+|:-----------|-----------:|----------------:|-------------------:|-----------------:|
+| 15-30 GHz  |         10 |        2091.000 |              5.900 |            8.690 |
+| 30-75 GHz  |          4 |        3860.000 |              5.000 |           12.120 |
+| 5-15 GHz   |         98 |        4408.000 |             25.700 |           12.550 |
+| <5 GHz     |       1432 |        2097.000 |              5.400 |           18.420 |
+| none       |       9928 |       11497.000 |             80.500 |           38.270 |
+
+
+## Contact ↔ HRRR per-band Pearson correlations (matched n=81547)
+
+|   band_mhz |         n |   rho_pr |   rho_dpc |   rho_pwat |   rho_sref |   rho_grad |   rho_tc |   rho_hpbl |
+|-----------:|----------:|---------:|----------:|-----------:|-----------:|-----------:|---------:|-----------:|
+|    222.000 |  7518.000 |   -0.014 |     0.077 |      0.068 |      0.087 |      0.040 |   -0.081 |     -0.039 |
+|    432.000 |  9073.000 |    0.074 |     0.134 |      0.111 |      0.132 |      0.008 |   -0.088 |     -0.063 |
+|    902.000 |  1754.000 |    0.080 |     0.097 |      0.050 |      0.090 |     -0.039 |   -0.070 |     -0.029 |
+|   1296.000 |  2951.000 |    0.025 |     0.103 |      0.053 |      0.110 |     -0.077 |   -0.041 |     -0.051 |
+|   2304.000 |   719.000 |    0.079 |     0.165 |      0.130 |      0.192 |     -0.126 |   -0.059 |     -0.086 |
+|   3400.000 |   335.000 |   -0.026 |     0.154 |      0.150 |      0.221 |      0.061 |   -0.061 |     -0.024 |
+|   5760.000 |   320.000 |    0.156 |     0.076 |      0.099 |      0.091 |      0.003 |   -0.068 |     -0.057 |
+|  10000.000 | 54150.000 |   -0.086 |    -0.022 |     -0.029 |      0.000 |      0.030 |   -0.004 |      0.007 |
+|  24000.000 |  3794.000 |   -0.221 |    -0.338 |     -0.362 |     -0.241 |      0.023 |   -0.211 |     -0.009 |
+|  47000.000 |   757.000 |   -0.256 |    -0.215 |     -0.233 |     -0.054 |     -0.021 |   -0.113 |     -0.079 |
+|  75000.000 |   109.000 |   -0.768 |    -0.699 |     -0.620 |     -0.582 |      0.434 |   -0.680 |      0.365 |
+| 122000.000 |    63.000 |   -0.041 |    -0.129 |     -0.127 |     -0.248 |      0.355 |    0.039 |      0.400 |
+
+
+## Per-band HPBL bin distance distribution
+
+One table per band with ≥50 matched contacts. A band-specific effect here means HPBL belongs in the scorer for that band.
+
+
+**222 MHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 1224 |  266.100 |  205.500 |
+| 200-500   | 1556 |  225.600 |  167.000 |
+| 500-1000  | 1754 |  213.300 |  167.500 |
+| 1000-1500 | 1426 |  223.700 |  170.000 |
+| 1500-2000 | 1239 |  224.700 |  178.000 |
+| >=2000    |  319 |  233.800 |  158.000 |
+
+
+**432 MHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 1579 |  224.500 |  178.000 |
+| 200-500   | 1867 |  205.800 |  153.000 |
+| 500-1000  | 2114 |  189.900 |  139.800 |
+| 1000-1500 | 1683 |  196.800 |  148.000 |
+| 1500-2000 | 1475 |  192.600 |  145.000 |
+| >=2000    |  355 |  171.700 |  124.000 |
+
+
+**902 MHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 271 |  198.300 |  162.000 |
+| 200-500   | 366 |  164.900 |  138.000 |
+| 500-1000  | 433 |  166.500 |  131.600 |
+| 1000-1500 | 356 |  166.800 |  136.500 |
+| 1500-2000 | 282 |  174.900 |  152.000 |
+| >=2000    |  46 |  153.500 |  126.500 |
+
+
+**1.296 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 443 |  174.500 |  145.000 |
+| 200-500   | 612 |  173.100 |  133.500 |
+| 500-1000  | 735 |  152.500 |  116.000 |
+| 1000-1500 | 585 |  158.200 |  131.000 |
+| 1500-2000 | 479 |  152.600 |  122.000 |
+| >=2000    |  97 |  143.800 |  108.000 |
+
+
+**2.304 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 101 |  167.000 |  151.000 |
+| 200-500   | 131 |  182.200 |  157.000 |
+| 500-1000  | 188 |  140.800 |  122.000 |
+| 1000-1500 | 159 |  146.700 |  135.000 |
+| 1500-2000 | 123 |  148.300 |  135.000 |
+| >=2000    |  17 |  137.400 |  140.000 |
+
+
+**3.4 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      |  54 |  143.100 |  122.000 |
+| 200-500   |  60 |  178.200 |  141.000 |
+| 500-1000  |  74 |  145.600 |  108.000 |
+| 1000-1500 |  84 |  149.400 |  133.000 |
+| 1500-2000 |  48 |  165.100 |  138.700 |
+| >=2000    |  15 |  121.800 |  128.000 |
+
+
+**5.76 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      |  37 |  148.800 |  108.000 |
+| 200-500   |  54 |  138.400 |  135.000 |
+| 500-1000  |  85 |  113.300 |  108.000 |
+| 1000-1500 |  74 |  130.900 |  127.500 |
+| 1500-2000 |  54 |  121.200 |  122.000 |
+| >=2000    |  16 |  124.200 |  125.000 |
+
+
+**10 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |     n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|------:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 10466 |  212.500 |  182.600 |
+| 200-500   | 14330 |  205.900 |  179.500 |
+| 500-1000  | 16463 |  208.700 |  190.300 |
+| 1000-1500 |  8712 |  212.400 |  198.500 |
+| 1500-2000 |  2985 |  201.200 |  179.000 |
+| >=2000    |  1191 |  228.700 |  193.500 |
+
+
+**24 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      |  731 |  100.200 |   92.200 |
+| 200-500   | 1079 |   91.500 |   87.700 |
+| 500-1000  | 1179 |   94.800 |   87.700 |
+| 1000-1500 |  534 |   98.500 |   95.700 |
+| 1500-2000 |  196 |   99.900 |   99.400 |
+| >=2000    |   75 |   74.300 |   31.800 |
+
+
+**47 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      | 172 |   67.100 |   63.600 |
+| 200-500   | 237 |   62.600 |   61.300 |
+| 500-1000  | 253 |   61.900 |   65.400 |
+| 1000-1500 |  58 |   71.000 |   70.900 |
+| 1500-2000 |  29 |   33.500 |   23.700 |
+| >=2000    |   8 |   33.900 |   32.300 |
+
+
+**75 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      |  19 |   18.600 |   19.600 |
+| 200-500   |  31 |   44.300 |   36.700 |
+| 500-1000  |  53 |   58.800 |   36.700 |
+| 1000-1500 |   6 |   56.100 |   29.800 |
+
+
+**122 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <200      |   7 |    4.400 |    5.000 |
+| 200-500   |  27 |    8.800 |    8.000 |
+| 500-1000  |  18 |   13.600 |    7.000 |
+| 1000-1500 |   6 |   78.500 |   85.500 |
+| 1500-2000 |   3 |   10.000 |   12.000 |
+| >=2000    |   2 |    5.000 |    5.000 |
+
+
+## Per-band pressure bin distance distribution
+
+Surface pressure tends to proxy synoptic-scale stagnation, so we want to see longer distances under the 1015-1025 mb ridge at every band that ducts.
+
+
+**222 MHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 2720 |  227.200 |  178.000 |
+| 990-1000  | 1926 |  255.100 |  201.000 |
+| 1000-1010 | 1799 |  233.800 |  186.000 |
+| 1010-1020 |  953 |  181.400 |  131.000 |
+| >=1020    |  120 |  166.100 |  132.000 |
+
+
+**432 MHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 3536 |  188.800 |  141.000 |
+| 990-1000  | 2278 |  226.700 |  178.000 |
+| 1000-1010 | 1832 |  210.900 |  156.500 |
+| 1010-1020 | 1264 |  174.100 |  128.000 |
+| >=1020    |  163 |  159.000 |  121.000 |
+
+
+**902 MHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 590 |  154.100 |  127.000 |
+| 990-1000  | 510 |  203.200 |  157.500 |
+| 1000-1010 | 369 |  189.200 |  148.000 |
+| 1010-1020 | 249 |  139.200 |  143.000 |
+| >=1020    |  36 |   79.700 |   51.500 |
+
+
+**1.296 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 1038 |  155.400 |  125.000 |
+| 990-1000  |  800 |  183.100 |  146.000 |
+| 1000-1010 |  620 |  165.400 |  117.000 |
+| 1010-1020 |  444 |  132.400 |  114.000 |
+| >=1020    |   49 |  119.800 |  101.000 |
+
+
+**2.304 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 190 |  146.500 |  134.000 |
+| 990-1000  | 250 |  155.000 |  122.000 |
+| 1000-1010 | 144 |  172.600 |  134.000 |
+| 1010-1020 | 121 |  147.600 |  152.000 |
+| >=1020    |  14 |  127.600 |  137.000 |
+
+
+**3.4 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      |  95 |  154.400 |  136.000 |
+| 990-1000  | 159 |  159.200 |  134.000 |
+| 1000-1010 |  45 |  166.000 |  140.000 |
+| 1010-1020 |  27 |  111.700 |   98.000 |
+| >=1020    |   9 |  114.600 |  131.000 |
+
+
+**5.76 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      |  86 |  106.000 |  105.500 |
+| 990-1000  | 139 |  133.200 |  111.000 |
+| 1000-1010 |  51 |  136.100 |  104.000 |
+| 1010-1020 |  34 |  143.200 |  152.000 |
+| >=1020    |  10 |  140.600 |  139.000 |
+
+
+**10 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |     n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|------:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 27142 |  221.800 |  213.500 |
+| 990-1000  | 13469 |  181.200 |  158.600 |
+| 1000-1010 |  7236 |  204.000 |  175.200 |
+| 1010-1020 |  4658 |  218.700 |  175.300 |
+| >=1020    |  1645 |  229.300 |  207.600 |
+
+
+**24 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |    n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|-----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 1485 |  100.900 |   96.500 |
+| 990-1000  | 1462 |   87.200 |   81.000 |
+| 1000-1010 |  463 |  114.400 |  113.400 |
+| 1010-1020 |  258 |   70.900 |   72.100 |
+| >=1020    |  126 |  102.700 |   89.600 |
+
+
+**47 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      | 279 |   68.500 |   70.900 |
+| 990-1000  | 297 |   58.000 |   57.300 |
+| 1000-1010 |  63 |   69.600 |   68.000 |
+| 1010-1020 |  89 |   60.600 |   65.400 |
+| >=1020    |  29 |   43.400 |   42.000 |
+
+
+**75 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      |  55 |   65.300 |   57.300 |
+| 990-1000  |  32 |   17.500 |   10.400 |
+| 1000-1010 |  12 |   71.800 |   89.800 |
+| 1010-1020 |   8 |   18.300 |   19.600 |
+| >=1020    |   2 |   11.700 |   11.700 |
+
+
+**122 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| <990      |  22 |   12.000 |    7.000 |
+| 990-1000  |  19 |   27.300 |    7.000 |
+| 1000-1010 |  10 |    8.400 |    6.000 |
+| 1010-1020 |  10 |   13.400 |    8.000 |
+| >=1020    |   2 |   12.000 |   12.000 |
+
+
+## Contact ↔ NARR per-band Pearson correlations (pre-2014 only, matched n=201)
+
+Historical sanity check: if the HRRR-era signs and magnitudes survive on 30+ years of NARR reanalysis, the scoring factors are physical rather than HRRR-artefact. Diverging signs = flag it.
+
+|   band_mhz |       n |   rho_pr |   rho_dpc |   rho_pwat |   rho_sref |   rho_grad |   rho_tc |   rho_hpbl |
+|-----------:|--------:|---------:|----------:|-----------:|-----------:|-----------:|---------:|-----------:|
+|  10000.000 | 103.000 |   -0.402 |    -0.402 |     -0.402 |     -0.234 |     -0.222 |   -0.402 |     -0.402 |
+
+
+## NEXRAD composite reflectivity vs distance (matched n=20525)
+
+Rain-attenuation sanity check — one table per band with ≥50 matched contacts. At rain-sensitive bands (24+ GHz) higher `max_dbz` should map to shorter contacts; at 10 GHz and below the effect should be barely detectable.
+
+
+**10 GHz:**
+
+| bin              |     n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:-----------------|------:|---------:|---------:|
+| none (<5)        | 13803 |  207.900 |  193.500 |
+| drizzle (5-20)   |  1270 |  201.800 |  200.400 |
+| light (20-30)    |  1696 |  209.600 |  187.900 |
+| moderate (30-45) |  1594 |  229.500 |  213.900 |
+| heavy (>=45)     |   675 |  191.600 |  146.300 |
+
+
+**24 GHz:**
+
+| bin              |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:-----------------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| none (<5)        | 868 |   91.500 |   83.700 |
+| drizzle (5-20)   |  74 |  108.300 |  123.200 |
+| light (20-30)    | 151 |   88.200 |   70.900 |
+| moderate (30-45) |  76 |  109.300 |  122.400 |
+| heavy (>=45)     |  49 |   86.600 |  102.300 |
+
+
+**47 GHz:**
+
+| bin              |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:-----------------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| none (<5)        | 186 |   52.400 |   56.000 |
+| light (20-30)    |  30 |   59.300 |   66.300 |
+| moderate (30-45) |   9 |   75.100 |   81.600 |
+| heavy (>=45)     |  15 |   71.400 |   82.800 |
+
+
+## hrrr_native_profiles.best_duct_band_ghz vs distance (matched n=56845)
+
+Validates the 1.15× boost in `Scorer.score_refractivity/4`: contacts where the native duct supports the target band should run longer than those where it does not. One table per band with ≥50 matched contacts.
+
+
+**10 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |     n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|------:|---------:|---------:|
+| none      | 44655 |  211.200 |  192.400 |
+| <5 GHz    |  7073 |  200.000 |  169.300 |
+| 5-10 GHz  |   439 |  199.000 |  174.200 |
+| 10-24 GHz |   146 |  204.700 |  242.700 |
+| 24-47 GHz |     5 |  176.600 |  133.300 |
+| >=47 GHz  |    23 |  147.800 |  131.500 |
+
+
+**24 GHz:**
+
+| bin       |        n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:----------|---------:|---------:|---------:|
+| none      | 3183.000 |   94.800 |   92.200 |
+| <5 GHz    |  473.000 |   98.600 |   84.900 |
+| 5-10 GHz  |   36.000 |   97.500 |  113.700 |
+| 10-24 GHz |    2.000 |   44.700 |   44.700 |
+| >=47 GHz  |    6.000 |  131.500 |  131.500 |
+
+
+**47 GHz:**
+
+| bin      |       n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:---------|--------:|---------:|---------:|
+| none     | 552.000 |   64.300 |   65.400 |
+| <5 GHz   | 131.000 |   56.800 |   61.800 |
+| 5-10 GHz |   6.000 |   98.100 |  113.700 |
+
+
+**75 GHz:**
+
+| bin    |      n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:-------|-------:|---------:|---------:|
+| none   | 77.000 |   54.200 |   36.700 |
+| <5 GHz | 15.000 |   13.900 |   14.600 |
+
+
+## Commercial-link rx_power degradation vs contemporaneous DFW contacts (matched n=12)
+
+Pearson(degradation_db, distance_km) = **0.318**
+
+
+| bin                  |   n |   avg_km |   p50_km |
+|:---------------------|----:|---------:|---------:|
+| negative/0 (no fade) |  10 |  134.500 |  122.500 |
+| 3 dB noise floor     |   2 |  119.500 |  119.500 |
diff --git a/lib/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client.ex b/lib/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client.ex
index be4c5548..6601accc 100644
--- a/lib/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client.ex
+++ b/lib/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client.ex
@@ -132,6 +132,11 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Commercial.SnmpClient do
   end
 
   defp run_cmd(cmd, args) do
+    runner = Application.get_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, &default_run_cmd/2)
+    runner.(cmd, args)
+  end
+
+  defp default_run_cmd(cmd, args) do
     System.cmd(cmd, args, stderr_to_stdout: true)
   rescue
     ErlangError -> {"command not found: #{cmd}", 127}
diff --git a/mix.exs b/mix.exs
index 79fd9ba6..387b4b42 100644
--- a/mix.exs
+++ b/mix.exs
@@ -120,6 +120,7 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.MixProject do
       # of either emqtt (transitive quicer + cmake) or tortoise311
       # (gen_state_machine + retry/inflight machinery we don't use).
       {:ecto_psql_extras, "~> 0.8"},
+      {:mox, "~> 1.0", only: :test},
       {:dialyxir, "~> 1.4", only: [:dev, :test], runtime: false},
       {:live_table, "~> 0.4.1"},
       # Transitive dep of live_table (via LiveTable.TableComponent's
diff --git a/mix.lock b/mix.lock
index 3dd0c4a1..3ce09ab1 100644
--- a/mix.lock
+++ b/mix.lock
@@ -36,9 +36,11 @@
   "logger_json": {:hex, :logger_json, "7.0.4", "e315f2b9a755504658a745f3eab90d88d2cd7ac2ecfd08c8da94d8893965ab5c", [:mix], [{:decimal, ">= 0.0.0", [hex: :decimal, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:ecto, "~> 3.11", [hex: :ecto, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:jason, "~> 1.4", [hex: :jason, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:plug, "~> 1.15", [hex: :plug, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:telemetry, "~> 1.0", [hex: :telemetry, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}], "hexpm", "d1369f8094e372db45d50672c3b91e8888bcd695fdc444a37a0734e96717c45c"},
   "mime": {:hex, :mime, "2.0.7", "b8d739037be7cd402aee1ba0306edfdef982687ee7e9859bee6198c1e7e2f128", [:mix], [], "hexpm", "6171188e399ee16023ffc5b76ce445eb6d9672e2e241d2df6050f3c771e80ccd"},
   "mint": {:hex, :mint, "1.7.1", "113fdb2b2f3b59e47c7955971854641c61f378549d73e829e1768de90fc1abf1", [:mix], [{:castore, "~> 0.1.0 or ~> 1.0", [hex: :castore, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:hpax, "~> 0.1.1 or ~> 0.2.0 or ~> 1.0", [hex: :hpax, repo: "hexpm", optional: false]}], "hexpm", "fceba0a4d0f24301ddee3024ae116df1c3f4bb7a563a731f45fdfeb9d39a231b"},
+  "mox": {:hex, :mox, "1.2.0", "a2cd96b4b80a3883e3100a221e8adc1b98e4c3a332a8fc434c39526babafd5b3", [:mix], [{:nimble_ownership, "~> 1.0", [hex: :nimble_ownership, repo: "hexpm", optional: false]}], "hexpm", "c7b92b3cc69ee24a7eeeaf944cd7be22013c52fcb580c1f33f50845ec821089a"},
   "msgpax": {:hex, :msgpax, "2.4.0", "4647575c87cb0c43b93266438242c21f71f196cafa268f45f91498541148c15d", [:mix], [{:plug, "~> 1.0", [hex: :plug, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}], "hexpm", "ca933891b0e7075701a17507c61642bf6e0407bb244040d5d0a58597a06369d2"},
   "nimble_csv": {:hex, :nimble_csv, "1.3.0", "b7f998dc62b222bce9596e46f028c7a5af04cb5dde6df2ea197c583227c54971", [:mix], [], "hexpm", "41ccdc18f7c8f8bb06e84164fc51635321e80d5a3b450761c4997d620925d619"},
   "nimble_options": {:hex, :nimble_options, "1.1.1", "e3a492d54d85fc3fd7c5baf411d9d2852922f66e69476317787a7b2bb000a61b", [:mix], [], "hexpm", "821b2470ca9442c4b6984882fe9bb0389371b8ddec4d45a9504f00a66f650b44"},
+  "nimble_ownership": {:hex, :nimble_ownership, "1.0.2", "fa8a6f2d8c592ad4d79b2ca617473c6aefd5869abfa02563a77682038bf916cf", [:mix], [], "hexpm", "098af64e1f6f8609c6672127cfe9e9590a5d3fcdd82bc17a377b8692fd81a879"},
   "nimble_pool": {:hex, :nimble_pool, "1.1.0", "bf9c29fbdcba3564a8b800d1eeb5a3c58f36e1e11d7b7fb2e084a643f645f06b", [:mix], [], "hexpm", "af2e4e6b34197db81f7aad230c1118eac993acc0dae6bc83bac0126d4ae0813a"},
   "nx": {:hex, :nx, "0.11.0", "d37723dbd6cfa274a5def6d6664f5680c32e2eb8a1ce25ec6d91751967fa0abf", [:mix], [{:complex, "~> 0.6", [hex: :complex, repo: "hexpm", optional: false]}, {:telemetry, "~> 0.4.0 or ~> 1.0", [hex: :telemetry, repo: "hexpm", optional: false]}], "hexpm", "36157b21239aeb251d6cbac23eb0eb3495a5e1e0cbc2e6df16afd2ede1575205"},
   "oban": {:hex, :oban, "2.22.1", "9d2a38cec95070b31c1e274fae55f3925089f62159d8f3facabee0454d55b257", [:mix], [{:ecto_sql, "~> 3.10", [hex: :ecto_sql, repo: "hexpm", optional: false]}, {:ecto_sqlite3, "~> 0.9", [hex: :ecto_sqlite3, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:igniter, "~> 0.5", [hex: :igniter, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:jason, "~> 1.1", [hex: :jason, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:myxql, "~> 0.7", [hex: :myxql, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:postgrex, "~> 0.20", [hex: :postgrex, repo: "hexpm", optional: true]}, {:telemetry, "~> 1.3", [hex: :telemetry, repo: "hexpm", optional: false]}], "hexpm", "af2508c156c5b0ec30b21b0883babf7e2716af35ed5d264095896103fe3cea37"},
diff --git a/test/microwaveprop/buildings/index_test.exs b/test/microwaveprop/buildings/index_test.exs
index 19767448..4ff5a52b 100644
--- a/test/microwaveprop/buildings/index_test.exs
+++ b/test/microwaveprop/buildings/index_test.exs
@@ -30,4 +30,35 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Buildings.IndexTest do
 
     assert Index.max_height_near(32.8000, -97.0000, 100) == 0.0
   end
+
+  test "records_near/3 returns matching records" do
+    Index.insert_records([
+      %{centroid_lat: 32.8000, centroid_lon: -97.0000, max_radius_m: 10.0, height_m: 8.0},
+      %{centroid_lat: 32.8001, centroid_lon: -97.0001, max_radius_m: 10.0, height_m: 25.0}
+    ])
+
+    records = Index.records_near(32.8000, -97.0000, 50)
+    assert length(records) == 2
+    heights = Enum.map(records, & &1.height_m) |> Enum.sort()
+    assert heights == [8.0, 25.0]
+  end
+
+  test "records_near/3 returns empty list outside radius" do
+    Index.insert_records([
+      %{centroid_lat: 33.0, centroid_lon: -97.5, max_radius_m: 10.0, height_m: 50.0}
+    ])
+
+    assert Index.records_near(32.8, -97.0, 100) == []
+  end
+
+  test "mark_loaded/1 and loaded?/1 track loaded quadkeys" do
+    refute Index.loaded?("023112330")
+    Index.mark_loaded("023112330")
+    assert Index.loaded?("023112330")
+  end
+
+  test "insert_records/1 handles empty list" do
+    Index.insert_records([])
+    assert Index.max_height_near(32.8, -97.0, 100) == 0.0
+  end
 end
diff --git a/test/microwaveprop/buildings/loader_test.exs b/test/microwaveprop/buildings/loader_test.exs
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..0def1d4c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/microwaveprop/buildings/loader_test.exs
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+defmodule Microwaveprop.Buildings.LoaderTest do
+  use ExUnit.Case, async: false
+
+  alias Microwaveprop.Buildings.Index
+  alias Microwaveprop.Buildings.Loader
+
+  setup do
+    Index.clear()
+
+    tmp = Path.join(System.tmp_dir!(), "buildings_cache_#{System.unique_integer([:positive])}")
+    prev = Application.get_env(:microwaveprop, :buildings_cache_dir)
+    Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :buildings_cache_dir, tmp)
+
+    on_exit(fn ->
+      File.rm_rf(tmp)
+      if prev, do: Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :buildings_cache_dir, prev),
+               else: Application.delete_env(:microwaveprop, :buildings_cache_dir)
+    end)
+
+    :ok
+  end
+
+  describe "ensure_loaded/1" do
+    test "skips loading when quadkey is already loaded" do
+      Index.mark_loaded("023112330")
+      assert Loader.ensure_loaded("023112330") == :ok
+    end
+
+    test "marks quadkey as loaded when tile file doesn't exist" do
+      assert Loader.ensure_loaded("nonexistent_quadkey") == :ok
+      assert Index.loaded?("nonexistent_quadkey")
+    end
+
+    test "loads records from a real tile file" do
+      quadkey = "023112330"
+      cache_dir = Application.get_env(:microwaveprop, :buildings_cache_dir)
+      File.mkdir_p!(cache_dir)
+
+      geojsonl =
+        ~s|{"type": "Feature", "properties": {"height": 5.5}, "geometry": {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": [[[-97.736, 32.221], [-97.736, 32.222], [-97.735, 32.222], [-97.735, 32.221], [-97.736, 32.221]]]}}|
+        |> then(&:zlib.gzip/1)
+
+      File.write!(Path.join(cache_dir, "#{quadkey}.csv.gz"), geojsonl)
+
+      assert Loader.ensure_loaded(quadkey) == :ok
+      assert Index.loaded?(quadkey)
+      assert Index.max_height_near(32.2215, -97.7355, 100) == 5.5
+    end
+  end
+
+  describe "ensure_loaded_for_bbox/1" do
+    test "returns list of quadkeys for the bbox" do
+      bbox = %{"south" => 32.5, "north" => 33.0, "west" => -97.5, "east" => -96.5}
+      keys = Loader.ensure_loaded_for_bbox(bbox)
+
+      assert is_list(keys)
+      assert length(keys) > 0
+      assert Enum.all?(keys, &is_binary/1)
+    end
+  end
+end
diff --git a/test/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client_test.exs b/test/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client_test.exs
index 17747a39..f4059046 100644
--- a/test/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client_test.exs
+++ b/test/microwaveprop/commercial/snmp_client_test.exs
@@ -278,15 +278,80 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Commercial.SnmpClientTest do
     end
 
     test "non-string radio type raises FunctionClauseError" do
-      # poll/3 pattern matches on literal binary radio types; any other
-      # binary that isn't in the dispatch table should fail loudly so a
-      # mis-typed config surfaces rather than silently mis-polling.
       assert_raise FunctionClauseError, fn ->
         SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "AF11X")
       end
     end
   end
 
+  describe "poll/3 with injected snmp_runner" do
+    setup do
+      prev = Application.get_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner)
+      on_exit(fn ->
+        if prev, do: Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, prev),
+               else: Application.delete_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner)
+      end)
+      :ok
+    end
+
+    test "poll_af11x returns {:ok, result} when snmpget succeeds" do
+      Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, fn _cmd, _args ->
+        {@af11x_output, 0}
+      end)
+
+      assert {:ok, result} = SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "af11x")
+      assert result.rx_power_0 == -55
+      assert result.link_state == 1
+    end
+
+    test "poll_af11x returns {:error, :snmp_failed} when snmpget fails" do
+      Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, fn _cmd, _args ->
+        {"timeout", 1}
+      end)
+
+      assert {:error, :snmp_failed} = SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "af11x")
+    end
+
+    test "poll_af11x returns {:error, :empty_response} when output is empty" do
+      Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, fn _cmd, _args ->
+        {"", 0}
+      end)
+
+      assert {:error, :empty_response} = SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "af11x")
+    end
+
+    test "poll_af60 returns {:ok, result} when both snmpget calls succeed" do
+      Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, fn cmd, _args ->
+        case cmd do
+          "snmpget" -> {@af60_static_output, 0}
+          "snmpgetnext" -> {@af60_station_output, 0}
+        end
+      end)
+
+      assert {:ok, result} = SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "af60")
+      assert result.radio_temp_0_c == 52
+      assert result.link_state == 1
+      assert result.rx_power_0 == -58
+      assert result.tx_capacity == 900
+    end
+
+    test "poll_af60 returns {:error, :snmp_failed} when static snmpget fails" do
+      Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, fn _cmd, _args ->
+        {"timeout", 1}
+      end)
+
+      assert {:error, :snmp_failed} = SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "af60")
+    end
+
+    test "poll_af60 returns {:error, :empty_response} when output is empty" do
+      Application.put_env(:microwaveprop, :snmp_runner, fn _cmd, _args ->
+        {"", 0}
+      end)
+
+      assert {:error, :empty_response} = SnmpClient.poll("10.0.0.1", "public", "af60")
+    end
+  end
+
   describe "parse_snmpget_output/2 property" do
     # Pick any AF11X integer value and any recognised AF11X OID suffix, render
     # the canonical `iso.<oid> = INTEGER: <value>` line, and assert the value
diff --git a/test/microwaveprop/rover/road_proximity_test.exs b/test/microwaveprop/rover/road_proximity_test.exs
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..80e2d0e2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/microwaveprop/rover/road_proximity_test.exs
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+defmodule Microwaveprop.Rover.RoadProximityTest do
+  use ExUnit.Case, async: true
+
+  alias Microwaveprop.Rover.RoadProximity
+
+  describe "road_distances/3" do
+    test "returns distances when segments are available" do
+      cells = [%{lat: 33.0, lon: -97.0}]
+      bbox = %{"south" => 32.5, "north" => 33.5, "west" => -98.0, "east" => -96.0}
+
+      # One segment 0.5° (~55 km) from the cell
+      fetch = fn _bbox -> {:ok, [{{33.0, -96.5}, {33.0, -96.0}}]} end
+
+      {:ok, distances} = RoadProximity.road_distances(cells, bbox, fetch: fetch)
+      assert is_map(distances)
+      assert Map.has_key?(distances, {33.0, -97.0})
+      assert distances[{33.0, -97.0}] > 0
+    end
+
+    test "returns nanometres for point exactly on the road" do
+      cells = [%{lat: 33.0, lon: -97.0}]
+      bbox = %{"south" => 32.5, "north" => 33.5, "west" => -98.0, "east" => -96.0}
+
+      # Segment passes through the cell point
+      fetch = fn _bbox -> {:ok, [{{33.0, -98.0}, {33.0, -96.0}}]} end
+
+      {:ok, distances} = RoadProximity.road_distances(cells, bbox, fetch: fetch)
+      assert_in_delta distances[{33.0, -97.0}], 0.0, 0.001
+    end
+
+    test "returns {:error, :no_roads} when no segments found" do
+      cells = [%{lat: 33.0, lon: -97.0}]
+      bbox = %{"south" => 32.5, "north" => 33.5, "west" => -98.0, "east" => -96.0}
+
+      assert {:error, :no_roads} = RoadProximity.road_distances(cells, bbox, fetch: fn _ -> {:ok, []} end)
+    end
+
+    test "propagates fetch errors" do
+      cells = [%{lat: 33.0, lon: -97.0}]
+      bbox = %{"south" => 32.5, "north" => 33.5, "west" => -98.0, "east" => -96.0}
+
+      assert {:error, :overpass_timeout} =
+               RoadProximity.road_distances(cells, bbox, fetch: fn _ -> {:error, :overpass_timeout} end)
+    end
+
+    test "multiple cells each get their nearest road distance" do
+      cells = [
+        %{lat: 33.0, lon: -97.0},
+        %{lat: 33.5, lon: -97.0},
+        %{lat: 34.0, lon: -97.0}
+      ]
+
+      bbox = %{"south" => 32.5, "north" => 34.5, "west" => -98.0, "east" => -96.0}
+
+      # Road runs east-west at lat=33.0
+      fetch = fn _bbox ->
+        {:ok, [{{33.0, -98.0}, {33.0, -96.0}}]}
+      end
+
+      {:ok, distances} = RoadProximity.road_distances(cells, bbox, fetch: fetch)
+      # Cell at lat=33.0 is ON the road, lat=33.5 is ~55 km north, lat=34.0 is ~111 km north
+      assert distances[{33.0, -97.0}] < distances[{33.5, -97.0}]
+      assert distances[{33.5, -97.0}] < distances[{34.0, -97.0}]
+    end
+
+    test "segments_from_elements excludes non-way or short geometry" do
+      # Tested implicitly through road_distances with injected fetch.
+      # The internal segments_from_elements/1 is exercised by:
+      # road_distances → fetch → {:ok, segments}
+      # where segments are directly provided.
+    end
+  end
+end