From 08e4b9abdd7d347fa1648d70000990b8f4727c7d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Graham McIntire <graham@mcintire.me>
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2026 09:17:36 -0500
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?Bigger=20network=20(128=E2=86=9264=E2=86=9232)?=
 =?UTF-8?q?=20and=20percentile-based=20training=20target?=
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

- 3 hidden layers instead of 2 for better feature interaction learning
- Target is within-band distance percentile (0-1) instead of raw
  normalized distance — reduces noise from operator/equipment variation
---
 lib/microwaveprop/propagation/model.ex        |  8 +++--
 lib/mix/tasks/propagation_train.ex            | 35 ++++++++++++++-----
 test/microwaveprop/propagation/model_test.exs |  1 +
 3 files changed, 32 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-)

diff --git a/lib/microwaveprop/propagation/model.ex b/lib/microwaveprop/propagation/model.ex
index 66e9c2a3..4f78a047 100644
--- a/lib/microwaveprop/propagation/model.ex
+++ b/lib/microwaveprop/propagation/model.ex
@@ -52,10 +52,12 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation.Model do
   def build do
     "features"
     |> Axon.input(shape: {nil, @feature_count})
-    |> Axon.dense(64, activation: :relu, name: "hidden_1")
+    |> Axon.dense(128, activation: :relu, name: "hidden_1")
     |> Axon.dropout(rate: 0.2, name: "dropout_1")
-    |> Axon.dense(32, activation: :relu, name: "hidden_2")
-    |> Axon.dropout(rate: 0.1, name: "dropout_2")
+    |> Axon.dense(64, activation: :relu, name: "hidden_2")
+    |> Axon.dropout(rate: 0.15, name: "dropout_2")
+    |> Axon.dense(32, activation: :relu, name: "hidden_3")
+    |> Axon.dropout(rate: 0.1, name: "dropout_3")
     |> Axon.dense(1, activation: :sigmoid, name: "output")
   end
 
diff --git a/lib/mix/tasks/propagation_train.ex b/lib/mix/tasks/propagation_train.ex
index 4b398970..892838ce 100644
--- a/lib/mix/tasks/propagation_train.ex
+++ b/lib/mix/tasks/propagation_train.ex
@@ -116,13 +116,13 @@ defmodule Mix.Tasks.PropagationTrain do
     # Evaluate on validation set
     val_metrics = Model.evaluate(trained_state, val_features, val_targets)
     IO.puts("Validation metrics:")
-    IO.puts("  RMSE:      #{Float.round(val_metrics.rmse, 4)}")
+    IO.puts("  RMSE:      #{Float.round(val_metrics.rmse * 100, 2)} points (on 0-100 scale)")
     IO.puts("  R-squared: #{Float.round(val_metrics.r_squared, 4)}\n")
 
     # Evaluate on test set
     test_metrics = Model.evaluate(trained_state, test_features, test_targets)
     IO.puts("Test metrics:")
-    IO.puts("  RMSE:      #{Float.round(test_metrics.rmse, 4)}")
+    IO.puts("  RMSE:      #{Float.round(test_metrics.rmse * 100, 2)} points (on 0-100 scale)")
     IO.puts("  R-squared: #{Float.round(test_metrics.r_squared, 4)}\n")
 
     # Save model
@@ -178,10 +178,31 @@ defmodule Mix.Tasks.PropagationTrain do
 
     band_counts = Enum.frequencies_by(rows, fn row -> Enum.at(row, 0) end)
 
-    {feature_rows, target_rows} =
+    # Group by band and compute within-band distance percentile as target.
+    # This converts raw distance to "how good were conditions relative to
+    # what's possible on this band" — reduces noise from operator/equipment.
+    rows_by_band =
       rows
       |> Enum.filter(fn [band_mhz | _] -> Map.has_key?(@band_max_km, band_mhz) end)
-      |> Enum.map(fn [band_mhz, distance_km, utc_hour, month, lon, temp, dewpoint, pressure, grad, hpbl, pwat] ->
+      |> Enum.group_by(fn [band_mhz | _] -> band_mhz end)
+
+    percentile_lookup =
+      Enum.flat_map(rows_by_band, fn {_band, band_rows} ->
+        distances = band_rows |> Enum.map(fn [_, d | _] -> d end) |> Enum.sort()
+        n = length(distances)
+
+        Enum.map(band_rows, fn [_, distance_km | _] = row ->
+          # Rank this distance within its band (0.0 to 1.0)
+          rank = Enum.count(distances, &(&1 <= distance_km))
+          pct = rank / n
+          {row, pct}
+        end)
+      end)
+
+    {feature_rows, target_rows} =
+      percentile_lookup
+      |> Enum.map(fn {[band_mhz, _distance_km, utc_hour, month, lon, temp, dewpoint, pressure, grad, hpbl, pwat],
+                      percentile} ->
         features =
           Model.encode_features(%{
             surface_temp_c: to_float(temp),
@@ -196,11 +217,7 @@ defmodule Mix.Tasks.PropagationTrain do
             freq_mhz: band_mhz
           })
 
-        # Normalize distance by band's p99 range, cap at 1.0
-        max_km = Map.fetch!(@band_max_km, band_mhz)
-        target = [min(distance_km / max_km, 1.0)]
-
-        {features, target}
+        {features, [percentile]}
       end)
       |> Enum.unzip()
 
diff --git a/test/microwaveprop/propagation/model_test.exs b/test/microwaveprop/propagation/model_test.exs
index afbbb99c..67698f8a 100644
--- a/test/microwaveprop/propagation/model_test.exs
+++ b/test/microwaveprop/propagation/model_test.exs
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ defmodule Microwaveprop.Propagation.ModelTest do
       assert %Axon.ModelState{} = params
       assert Map.has_key?(params.data, "hidden_1")
       assert Map.has_key?(params.data, "hidden_2")
+      assert Map.has_key?(params.data, "hidden_3")
       assert Map.has_key?(params.data, "output")
     end
   end